The experts of IPT Group presented their forecast for the growth of pharmaceutical manufacturing until the end of 2017. In the opinion of the company, it will be 17-20% in terms of physical output and 4-8% in monetary terms. According to official statistics for H1 2017, the increase was 11.2% compared to the same period of 2016.
“As for 2018 forecasts, when we take into account the already started localization projects and the fact that the manufacturers will gradually reach the maximum capacity of their new production sites, the growth may be 20-25% in physical terms and up to 9% in value terms,” said Yulia Petrishcheva, the Finance Director of Pharmaceutical Projects at IPT Group.
According to the expert, the faster growth of slightly more than 11% registered in H1 2017 in the physical volumes of drugs for treatment of certain types of diseases is indicative compared to the general increase in domestic manufacturing at a pace close to the inflation rate.
“There is obviously the manifestation of the so-called “social driver of growth” when the manufacturing increases in line with natural needs of the population in these drugs. The increase in the number of batches of medicinal products released by Russian manufacturers into circulation also played a role,” said the expert.
Another reason for the growth lies in the desire of pharmaceutical manufacturers to saturate the domestic market by demanded range of generics, with expired patent protection rights previously held by a number of foreign companies, as part of implementing the plans for import substitution,” added Yulia Petrishcheva.