The participants in the Russian pharmaceutical market expect that, in the next two years, it will grow both in terms of monetary value and physical volumes, but consider the current state support measures for the industry as inadequate. Such conclusions can be drawn from a study conducted by IPT, a consulting group, and based on a survey of Russian and foreign pharmaceutical companies.
According to their forecasts, in 2017, the Russian pharmaceutical market will increase by 6-7% in monetary terms (to 1.3 trillion rubles) compared to 2016; and by another 9% in 2018. The growth in terms of physical volume (packages) over these two years will be 4-6% annually. While, in 2017, a substantial contribution to the growth of physical volume will be made by the segment of public procurement (the plans provide for the increase in the volume of purchased medicines with expenditures remaining at the same level as in 2016); in 2018, the market can also increase up to 10% in monetary terms. According to the analysts, the growing demand in the commercial segment will be supported by the population aging, as the Rosstat expects the percentage of Russians over 60 to reach 19.4% in 2017 and 20.7% in 2020. There will be also a higher amount of investments in the industry – compared to 2016, it will increase by 10-12% and reach 37.5 billion rubles. According to the authors of the report, the state should play a substantial role in the investment dynamics as, in this year alone, the expenditures under the Pharma-2020 program will grow by 15% to reach 11.6 billion rubles.